Edgewise

Luntz says "Kerry will win"

Christian Crumlish

Tom Schaller posts an interesting scoop over at the Gadflyer, recounting a "tipsy" conversation with Republican pollster and message crafter Frank Luntz (thank goodness for blogger ethics):

"What do you think?" I ask him, in a tone that indicates that I'm not talking about last night's Sox-Yankees brawl.

"Kerry will win," he says. I feel myself jump back slightly.

"Wow," I say. "How can you be so sure?"

"Bush's numbers on the war are bad, and it's spreading."

I follow-up: "So, it's that simple -- 'It's the war, stupid'?"

"Well, not that simple...but basically, yes."

"Ok, then, so what's the save-all scenario for Bush? Is there some way he manages to pull it out?"

"Only by making Kerry look bad, inconsistent."

"The flip-flopper thing," I say, seeking clarification.

"Yes," Luntz said. "But even that may not do it."